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(More customer reviews)As a glance at the "Look Inside" feature here on Amazon proves, Len Fisher writes a clear, interesting prose, raising important questions and suggesting rules that will help you make better decisions. He describes and applies 33 such rules in this latest contribution to popular science.
His basic thesis is that complex behaviors can be described by a simple rule. For example, gigantic numbers of fish seem to have a single mind -- but all a single fish has to know is to follow the fish immediately in front of it. Watching through your faceplate at gigantic schools of fish as they weave through the water -- you can see this rule in action in beautiful living color.
You can apply the same approach in trying to find a bargain, an approach that works best where there are many sellers and the products are fairly similar to each other.
The basic idea is "to estimate how many samples of the item might be available in total, and then look at a limited selection of these before choosing the next one that is at least as good (in terms of price and quality) as the best of those that we have so far seen. This procedure saves time and effort, and also reduces the possibility that we will spot a bargain, keep looking for a better one, decide on the original one, and go back only to find that it has been sold!"
Fisher explains the use of statistics in three scenarios:
"If we are going for the very best, we should look at one-third of all those available before going on to select the next one that is as good or better than the best that we have already seen (in terms of the lowest price for the same quality). This gives us a 33% chance of finding the very best bargain, and a very high chance of finding an extremely good bargain.
"If we are happy to accept a sample in the lowest 10% of prices, we need only look at 14% of the samples on offer before choosing the next one that we see which is at least as cheap as the cheapest of these. This gives us an 84% chance of settling on one among the cheapest 10%.
"If we are happy with a price in the lowest 25%, things get even better. We need only to look at 7% of the samples before choosing one that is at least as cheap as the cheapest we have seen. This gives you a whopping 92% chance of finding a bargain in your chosen range!"
Of course, if it's easy to find additional offers, or if it's fairly easy to get back to a better offer to see if it's still available, you may be able to get more/better/cheaper by spending a bit more time. Once you get the basic approach in mind, however, you'll be able to decide when to stop looking, make your choice, and get back to reading about other examples of how simple rules lead to great complexity.
Fisher's website is filled with additional examples, and his clear joy in reading and writing about science at work in our everyday life.
Robert C. Ross2009
Click Here to see more reviews about: The Perfect Swarm: The Science of Complexity in Everyday Life
One of the greatest discoveries of recent times is that the complex patterns we find in life are often produced when all of the individuals in a group follow the same simple rule. This process of "self-organization" reveals itself in the inanimate worlds of crystals and seashells, but as Len Fisher shows, it is also evident in living organisms, from fish to ants to human beings. The coordinated movements of fish in shoals, for example, arise from the simple rule: "Follow the fish in front." Traffic flow arises from simple rules: "Keep your distance" and "Keep to the right."Now, in his new book, Fisher shows how we can manage our complex social lives in an ever more chaotic world. His investigation encompasses topics ranging from "swarm intelligence" to the science of parties and the best ways to start a fad. Finally, Fisher sheds light on the beauty and utility of complexity theory. An entertaining journey into the science of everyday life, The Perfect Swarm will delight anyone who wants to understand the complex situations in which we so often find ourselves.
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